Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
18 Houston 77.9%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 6 15 - 5 +14.2      +7.2 21 +7.0 15 64.2 295 0.0 1 0.0 1
40 Memphis 52.6%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 8 13 - 7 +10.9      +4.0 72 +7.0 19 79.3 16 0.0 1 0.0 1
55 Cincinnati 46.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 10 12 - 8 +9.6      +3.9 74 +5.7 38 68.4 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
65 SMU 34.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 9 12 - 8 +8.8      +6.5 32 +2.3 102 62.3 326 0.0 1 0.0 1
77 Wichita St. 29.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 11 - 9 +7.5      +2.8 100 +4.7 60 71.5 103 0.0 1 0.0 1
97 South Florida 15.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 10 +5.4      +0.4 159 +5.0 55 62.6 323 0.0 1 0.0 1
98 Tulsa 15.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 10 - 10 +5.2      +0.1 168 +5.1 50 64.7 287 0.0 1 0.0 1
111 Central Florida 11.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 14 9 - 11 +4.1      +0.9 141 +3.2 86 67.7 218 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 Temple 3.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 7 - 13 +1.1      -1.1 201 +2.2 104 72.6 80 0.0 1 0.0 1
151 East Carolina 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 14 5 - 13 +0.7      +0.2 166 +0.5 155 73.7 63 0.0 1 0.0 1
210 Tulane 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 16 4 - 14 -3.3      -2.2 237 -1.1 203 69.8 148 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 2.3 46.2 22.0 12.7 7.7 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Memphis 3.4 22.4 21.2 17.2 12.7 9.4 6.9 4.7 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.2
Cincinnati 3.9 16.6 17.4 16.1 13.4 12.0 9.1 6.8 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.4
SMU 4.3 13.2 14.6 14.9 14.1 12.3 10.6 8.3 5.7 3.5 2.0 0.8
Wichita St. 4.9 8.5 11.8 13.2 14.5 13.2 11.9 9.9 7.8 5.2 2.7 1.2
South Florida 5.8 4.4 7.1 9.8 11.0 12.8 13.3 13.5 11.6 8.9 5.3 2.4
Tulsa 5.9 4.1 7.0 9.0 10.9 12.5 13.7 12.9 12.4 9.3 5.3 2.8
Central Florida 6.4 2.9 5.3 7.0 9.2 11.2 12.8 13.8 13.9 11.9 7.7 4.4
Temple 7.8 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.8 7.2 9.4 12.8 15.3 18.6 15.0 11.0
East Carolina 8.7 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.9 6.2 9.3 13.4 19.3 27.0 16.5
Tulane 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 4.5 7.6 14.4 26.6 42.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.3 6.5 8.4 10.9 12.7 14.3 13.3 11.8 7.9 3.1
Memphis 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.3 4.8 6.3 8.7 9.8 11.4 12.3 12.0 10.3 8.0 5.2 2.7 0.7
Cincinnati 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.2 3.3 4.9 6.4 8.5 9.9 10.7 11.4 10.8 10.4 8.0 5.7 3.6 1.6 0.4
SMU 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.8 4.1 6.4 7.9 9.4 10.1 11.1 10.9 9.8 8.5 6.7 4.6 2.7 1.1 0.3
Wichita St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.6 7.7 9.1 10.6 10.7 11.0 10.0 8.6 6.8 4.9 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1
South Florida 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.1 6.7 9.0 10.3 10.9 10.7 9.9 8.9 7.7 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tulsa 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.5 5.2 7.4 8.6 10.6 10.8 10.6 10.0 8.8 7.2 5.6 3.7 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Central Florida 9 - 11 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.3 4.8 7.2 8.8 10.1 10.9 10.8 10.1 8.7 7.1 5.7 4.1 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 7 - 13 0.6 2.3 4.9 7.5 9.7 11.3 11.8 11.3 10.3 8.8 7.1 5.1 3.9 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 15 2.2 5.5 9.1 11.6 13.2 13.0 11.9 10.1 8.1 6.0 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tulane 4 - 16 7.0 13.7 16.9 15.6 14.0 11.2 8.3 5.5 3.5 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 46.2% 35.8 8.6 1.6 0.2 0.0
Memphis 22.4% 15.3 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
Cincinnati 16.6% 11.0 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
SMU 13.2% 8.6 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Wichita St. 8.5% 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
South Florida 4.4% 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 4.1% 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 2.9% 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Temple 0.9% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Tulane 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 77.9% 33.8% 44.1% 8   6.9 7.3 6.8 7.7 6.5 6.1 6.5 6.3 7.1 6.8 5.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.1 66.6%
Memphis 52.6% 18.0% 34.5% 11   1.7 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.8 5.6 5.7 6.6 6.2 4.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 47.4 42.1%
Cincinnati 46.4% 13.6% 32.8% 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.9 6.1 5.9 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 53.6 38.0%
SMU 34.0% 10.8% 23.2% 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.9 4.8 5.2 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 66.0 26.0%
Wichita St. 29.4% 8.5% 20.9% 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.9 4.4 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 70.6 22.8%
South Florida 15.8% 4.7% 11.1% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.0 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 84.2 11.7%
Tulsa 15.5% 4.6% 10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.9 2.3 3.1 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 84.5 11.4%
Central Florida 11.0% 3.5% 7.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 89.0 7.7%
Temple 3.9% 1.4% 2.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 96.1 2.5%
East Carolina 3.1% 0.9% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.9 2.2%
Tulane 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 77.9% 3.4% 76.3% 52.7% 27.7% 14.1% 7.4% 3.6% 1.9%
Memphis 52.6% 4.2% 50.6% 29.8% 13.0% 5.8% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Cincinnati 46.4% 4.7% 44.0% 24.2% 10.0% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3%
SMU 34.0% 4.2% 31.9% 17.0% 6.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Wichita St. 29.4% 3.8% 27.3% 13.4% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
South Florida 15.8% 2.4% 14.4% 6.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Tulsa 15.5% 2.7% 14.0% 6.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 11.0% 2.0% 10.0% 4.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 3.9% 1.0% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 3.1% 0.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.9 5.9 29.0 39.2 21.5 4.2 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.7 0.0 7.7 33.5 38.1 17.6 2.8 0.2
2nd Round 88.7% 1.6 11.3 37.9 36.3 12.6 1.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 54.6% 0.7 45.4 42.8 10.7 1.0 0.0
Elite Eight 28.0% 0.3 72.0 25.7 2.3 0.0
Final Four 13.2% 0.1 86.8 12.7 0.5
Final Game 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.0 0.1
Champion 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9